Why Mongolian Voters Would Not Abandon Establishment Political Parties in the 2020 Election
Key takeaways from Sant Maral's latest polls ahead of Mongolian general elections in 2020:
- The survey reveals that majority of Mongolian voters are undecided and it is the highest number of swing votes since 2013. Many voters are disenchanted with almost 30 years of continues rule by the Mongolian People's Party and Democratic Party.
- The above survey is also a good reflection of growing distrust in mainstream political institutions - similar to other democracies. But the question is whether it is enough to defeat two major parties (MPP and DP) in 2020.
- The high number of undecided could lead either to low voter turnout in the 2020 election or to a large swing to one of major parties depending on the new electoral system and how election campaign goes next year.
- Mongolian People's Party (MPP) still leads the polls if you ignore the undecided. But the party's popularity declined significantly following the 2016 election.
- The MPP is led by a charismatic and popular leader Khurelsukh but he faces tough challenge ahead of him in 2020. It is highly unlikely he would secure super majority for his party. Best outcomes for the party would be to win simple majority to control the parliament or share power with its rivals, both of which are retreat for the MPP compared to the 2016 election outcome. Factions that are not favourable of Khurelsukh could demand his dismissal.
- The opposition Democratic Party (DP) hit six-year low of its popularity among voters dropping below 30% for the first time since 2013. The DP currently lacks energetic leader similar to the MPP. They have to activate and energise their support base, otherwise the DP could have a major challenge in the 2020 elections. Following 2017 elections Battulga has been real leader of the DP but in carrying out his duties he needs to remain non-partisan.
- Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party deserve credits as it is slowly capturing over 20% voters support. MPRP is yet to become a serious alternative to the MPP and the DP. Its popularity reached an all-time high thanks to unrelenting campaign against the establishment (aka MANAN or 'Fog' Regime) by former President Enkhbayar.
- Other smaller political parties of Mongolia have a little chance next election unless they capitalise on the undecided voters and attract enough financial support, which they lack at the moment. And top of that conducting election campaigns is becoming expensive than ever.
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